With the conflict in the Middle East entering its 12th week, the Strait of Hormuz — a 30-nautical-mile-wide chokepoint carrying one-fifth of global oil — has become the fault line of a global supply shock.

What started as a bottleneck led to rerouting and higher fuel costs — and with fertilizer prices already spiking, more expensive groceries are not far behind. This is a familiar inflation story that many Canadians will remember from 2021–2022, when pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, later compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, sent the cost of living to its highest level in a generation, prompting the Bank of Canada to raise rates sharply in response and leaving many households stretched thin. The context may be different, but higher inflation is almost certain.